Publications

Kuriwaki, Shiro, Mason Reece, Samuel Baltz, Aleksandra Conevska, Joseph R. Loffredo, Can E. Mutlu, Taran Samarth, Kevin E. Acevedo Jetter, Zachary Djanogly Garai, Kate Murray, Shigeo Hirano, Jeffrey B. Lewis, James M. Snyder, Jr., and Charles Stewart, III. “Cast vote records: A database of ballots from the 2020 U.S. Election.” Scientific Data 11 (1304). DOI: 10.1038/s41597-024-04017-1. Public dataset is available here. Paper preprint is available here.

Abstract: Ballots are the core records of elections. Electronic records of actual ballots cast (cast vote records) are available to the public in some jurisdictions. However, they have been released in a variety of formats and have not been independently evaluated. Here we introduce a database of cast vote records from the 2020 U.S. general election. We downloaded publicly available unstandardized cast vote records, standardized them into a multi-state database, and extensively compared their totals to certified election results. Our release includes vote records for President, Governor, U.S. Senate and House, and state upper and lower chambers, covering 42.7 million voters in 20 states who voted for more than 2,200 candidates. This database serves as a uniquely granular administrative dataset for studying voting behavior and election administration. Using this data, we show that in battleground states, 1.9 percent of solid Republicans (as defined by their congressional and state legislative voting) in our database split their ticket for Joe Biden, while 1.2 percent of solid Democrats split their ticket for Donald Trump.

Jaffe, Jacob, Joseph R. Loffredo, Samuel Baltz, Alejandro Flores, and Charles Stewart III. 2024. “Trust in the Count: Improving Voter Confidence with Post-Election Audits.’’ Public Opinion Quarterly 88 (SI): 585-607. DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfae029. Replication materials are available here.

Abstract: Post-election audits are thought to bolster voter confidence in elections, but it is unclear which aspects of audits drive public trust. Using pre-registered vignette and conjoint survey experiments administered by YouGov on a sample of 2,000 American respondents, we find that how an audit is conducted is more important than what an audit finds. Structural features of audits, like who conducts it and how its results are announced, turn out to be more consequential to voter evaluations of election results than the actual discrepancy found. Moreover, while Democrats and Republicans have increasingly divided views of the state of democracy in the United States, they are similarly receptive to information presented about audits, and largely agree that audits are effective tools for detecting errors in vote counting. Our findings thus reinforce the expectation that audits do increase voter trust and suggest that election administrators can strengthen voter confidence by making audits as transparent as possible.

Working Papers

“Legislating Democracy: When State Legislators Change Access to the Ballot”

“Where We Vote: The Changing Landscape of Where Americans Cast Votes’’ (with Alejandro Flores)

“Motivating Participation: Encouraging Minority Voters to Overcome the Costs of Voting” (with Christine M. Slaughter and Alejandro Flores)

“The Cost of Electoral Confidence” (with Alejandro Flores and Charles Stewart III)